Comparison of ARIMA, SutteARIMA, and Holt-Winters, and NNAR Models to Predict Food Grain in India

Ansari Saleh, Ahmar and Pawan Kumar, Singh and Ruliana, Ruliana and Alok Kumar, Pandey and Stuti, Gupta (2023) Comparison of ARIMA, SutteARIMA, and Holt-Winters, and NNAR Models to Predict Food Grain in India. Forecasting, 5. pp. 138-152.

	Text forecasting-05-00006.pdf Download (555kB)
	Text Turnitin - Comparison of ARIMA, SutteARIMA, and Holt-Winters, and NNAR Models to Predict Food Grain in India.pdf Download (3MB)
	Text Ansari Reviewer_Comparison of arima, suttearima, and holt-winter, and.pdf Download (1MB)
	Text Korespondensi [Forecasting] Manuscript ID forecasting-2105270.pdf Download (491kB)

Abstract

The agriculture sector plays an essential function within the Indian economic system. Foodgrains provide almost all the calories and proteins. This paper aims to compare ARIMA, SutteARIMA, Holt-Winters, and NNAR models to recommend an effective model to predict foodgrains production in India. The execution of the SutteARIMA predictive model used in this analysis was compared with the established ARIMA, Neural Network Auto-Regressive (NNAR), and Holt-Winters models, which have been widely applied for time series prediction. The findings of this study reveal that both the SutteARIMA model and the Holt-Winters model performed well with real-life problems and can effectively and profitably be engaged for food grain forecasting in India. The food grain forecasting approach with the SutteARIMA model indicated superior performance over the ARIMA, Holt-Winters, and NNAR models. Indeed, the actual and predicted values of the SutteARIMA and Holt-Winters forecasting models are quite close to predicting foodgrains production in India. This has been verified by MAPE and MSE values that are relatively low with the SutteARIMA model. Therefore, India’s SutteARIMA model was used to predict foodgrains production from 2021 to 2025. The forecasted amount of respective crops are as follows (in lakh tonnes) 1140.14 (wheat), 1232.27 (rice), 466.46 (coarse), 259.95 (pulses), and a total 3069.80 (foodgrains) by 2025.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN Universitas Negeri Makassar > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Divisions:	KOLEKSI KARYA ILMIAH UPT PERPUSTAKAAN UNM MENURUT FAKULTAS > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Depositing User:	Ansari Saleh Ahmar
Date Deposited:	08 May 2023 09:00
Last Modified:	19 Jun 2023 02:43
URI:	http://eprints.unm.ac.id/id/eprint/28626

Actions (login required)

View Item