Eksplorasi Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Jumlah Penggunaan Air Bersih di PDAM Kota Makassar

Suci, Lestari and Ansari Saleh, Ahmar and Ruliana, Ruliana (2020) Eksplorasi Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Jumlah Penggunaan Air Bersih di PDAM Kota Makassar. VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research, 2 (3). pp. 128-146.

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Abstract

The availability of clean water is very crucial important because almost all of human activities need water. This makes the production factor and availability of clean water are always being a priority in clean water distibution service. Thats why, the author intended to study about the forecasting about the use of clean water in PDAM, Makassar. One of the suitable method to handle this condition is Time Series method. Triple Exponential Smoothing method and also called Winter Exponential Smoothing is one of Time Series method which is suitable to handle the seasonal data like the amount of the clean water usage in Makassar. Even there, the analysis step of Triple Exponential Smoothing is Identification model, parameter estimation by trial and error, then calculation of the initial value of data smoothing, trend, and seasonal which one season long is L=12 and the last is calculating the error value by using MAPE and RMSE. The best model is obtained from the combination of parameter α = 0,1; β = 0,1; γ = 0,6 which produce the smallest forecasting error by using RMSE with a value of 168,175 and MAPE value is 4,736. By using model t L m t t t t t t t t t t m SN X S S T S S T m SN X F          (0,1  (0,9)( 1  1)  0,1(  1)  (0,9) 1. )0,6( )  (0,4) 1 The result of this study is forecasting about the amount of clean water usage in PDAM, Makassar from January – December 2019 as follows : 2779,10, 2788,94, 2728,61, 2797,28, 2787,97, 2752,66, 2742,18, 2708,50, 2644,55, 2521,50, 2537,74, 2732, 55. From the forecasting results, it showed that the current data was approaching and not too deviating from the last year’s data and it could be used as a reference of clean water productivity in PDAM, Makassar so the water productivity could suply all the societies’ need.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN Universitas Negeri Makassar > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Divisions:	KOLEKSI KARYA ILMIAH UPT PERPUSTAKAAN UNM MENURUT FAKULTAS > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Depositing User:	Ansari Saleh Ahmar
Date Deposited:	08 May 2023 09:43
Last Modified:	08 May 2023 09:43
URI:	http://eprints.unm.ac.id/id/eprint/28635

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