Forecasting the Value of Oil and Gas Exports in Indonesia using ARIMA Box-Jenkins

Ansari Saleh, Ahmar and Miguel, Botto-Tobar and Abdul, Rahman and Rahmat, Hidayat (2022) Forecasting the Value of Oil and Gas Exports in Indonesia using ARIMA Box-Jenkins. JINAV: Journal of Information and Visualization, 3 (1). pp. 35-42.

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Abstract

The objective of the study was to forecast the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia using the ARIMA Box-Jenkins. With this prediction, it is hoped that it can be a study for future policy making. This oil and gas export data is obtained from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) website, in raw data from January 2010 to March 2022. This data is predicted using the ARIMA method with the help of R software. The stages of data analysis with ARIMA include: data stationary test, build the model indication, parameter estimation and significance test, and residual diagnostic test of the model. The results of data analysis conducted in this study show that there are 3 indications of models that were generated, namely ARIMA(1,1,0); ARIMA(0,1,1); and ARIMA(1,1,0). From these 3 model indications, the best model was ARIMA(0,1,1) with AIC value of 2047.65.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN Universitas Negeri Makassar > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Divisions:	KOLEKSI KARYA ILMIAH UPT PERPUSTAKAAN UNM MENURUT FAKULTAS > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Depositing User:	Ansari Saleh Ahmar
Date Deposited:	08 May 2023 09:47
Last Modified:	08 May 2023 09:47
URI:	http://eprints.unm.ac.id/id/eprint/28633

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