Modeling of inflation cases in South Sulawesi Province using single exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing methods

Ansari Saleh, Ahmar and Fitmayanti, Fitmayanti and Ruliana, Ruliana (2022) Modeling of inflation cases in South Sulawesi Province using single exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing methods. Quality & Quantity, 56.

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Abstract

The inflation rate, particularly in South Sulawesi Province from year to year, is found to be very unstable, so that an effort to overcome the instability of the inflation rate is highly needed. One of the efforts that can be used is to carry out a process of forecasting the inflation rate, so that the government can predict the inflation rate properly in order to realize the sustainable economic growth. The aim of this study was to forecast Inflation Cases in South Sulawesi Province. The forecasting carried out in this study used the Exponential Smoothing method. Exponential Smoothing is a method that will take into account average (smoothing) the data of the past exponentially by repeating calculations continuously using the latest data. In this study, 2 Exponential Smoothing methods were compared, namely: Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) which were used to obtain prediction results and evaluate the results of predictions using the Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) methods. The smallest MAPE value was obtained when using the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method when the value ɑ=0.1 with the MSE value of 0.5567 and MAPE value of 265.7126 and the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method when the value ɑ=0.3 and with the MSE value of 4,256 and MAPE value of 574,519. Thus, the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method was regarded as the best method in predicting the inflation rate in South Sulawesi Province.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN Universitas Negeri Makassar > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Divisions:	KOLEKSI KARYA ILMIAH UPT PERPUSTAKAAN UNM MENURUT FAKULTAS > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN FAKULTAS MIPA
Depositing User:	Ansari Saleh Ahmar
Date Deposited:	15 Mar 2023 12:03
Last Modified:	22 Jun 2023 07:30
URI:	http://eprints.unm.ac.id/id/eprint/27399

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