Relative Risk of Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia: Bayesian Spatial Modeling

Aswi, Aswi and Mauliyana, Andi and Tiro, Muhammad Arif and Bustan, M. Nadjib (2021) Relative Risk of Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia: Bayesian Spatial Modeling. MEDIA STATISTIKA, 4 (2). pp. 158-169. ISSN 1979 3693 (paper) 2477 0647 (electronic)

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Abstract

The Covid-19 has exploded in the world since late 2019. South Sulawesi Province has the highest number of Covid-19 cases outside Java Island in Indonesia. This paper aims to determine the most suitable Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) localised models in modeling the relative risk (RR) of Covid-19 in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Bayesian spatial CAR localised models with different hyperpriors were performed adopting a Poisson distribution for the confirmed Covid-19 counts to examine the grouping of Covid-19 cases. All confirmed cases of Covid-19 (19 March 2020-18 February 2021) for each district were included. Overall, Bayesian CAR localised model with G = 5 with a hyperprior IG(1, 0.1) is the preferred model to estimate the RR based on the two criteria used. Makassar and Toraja Utara have the highest and the lowest RR, respectively. The group formed in the localised model is influenced by the magnitude of the mean and variance in the count data between areas. Using suitable Bayesian spatial CAR localised models enables the identification of high-risk areas of Covid-19 cases. This localised model could be applied in other case studies.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	FMIPA > STATISTIKA - (S1) KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN Universitas Negeri Makassar > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Divisions:	KOLEKSI KARYA ILMIAH UPT PERPUSTAKAAN UNM MENURUT FAKULTAS > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Depositing User:	Dr. Aswi Aswi
Date Deposited:	17 Jul 2022 06:12
Last Modified:	28 Nov 2022 03:13
URI:	http://eprints.unm.ac.id/id/eprint/23864

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