Factors Affecting the Covid-19 Risk in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia: A Bayesian Spatial Model

Aswi, Aswi and Sukarna, Sukarna Factors Affecting the Covid-19 Risk in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia: A Bayesian Spatial Model. INFERENSI, 5 (1). pp. 51-58. ISSN 0216-308X (Print) 2721-3862 (Online)

	Text (Jurnal Nasional Terakreditasi) 05_Aswi_Sukarna_Factors Affecting the Covid-19 Risk in South Sulawesi Province Indonesia.pdf - Published Version Download (662kB)
	Text (Form Penilaian Jurnal) 05_Form_Factors Affecting the Covid-19 Risk in South Sulawesi Province Indonesia.pdf - Additional Metadata Download (2MB)
	Text (Bukti Korespondensi Factors Affecting the Covid-19 Risk in South Sulawesi Province) bukti korespondensi_Inferensi_factors.pdf Download (631kB)

Abstract

The transmission of Coronavirus diseases 2019 (Covid-19) grows continuously around the world. Although a number of researches of modelling Covid-19 cases have been conducted, there was limited research implementing the Bayesian Spatial Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model. Factors affecting the Covid-19 risk especially population density and distance to the capital city have been studied, but the results are inconsistent and limited research has been done in Indonesia. This study aims to assess the most appropriate Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux models and examine factors that affect the risk of Covid-19 in South Sulawesi Province. Data on the number of Covid-19 cases (19 March 2020 - 31 January 2022), population density, and distance to the capital city were used for every 24 districts. Several criteria were used in choosing the most appropriate model. The results depict that Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux with hyperprior IG (1, 0.01) model with the inclusion of population density were preferred. It is concluded that a factor that significantly affects the number of Covid-19 cases is population density. There was a positive correlation between the population density and Covid-19 risk. Makassar city has the highest relative risk (RR) among other districts while Bone has the lowest RR of Covid-19.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	FMIPA > STATISTIKA - (S1) KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN Universitas Negeri Makassar > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Divisions:	KOLEKSI KARYA ILMIAH UPT PERPUSTAKAAN UNM MENURUT FAKULTAS > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Depositing User:	Dr. Aswi Aswi
Date Deposited:	17 Jul 2022 06:12
Last Modified:	28 Nov 2022 00:33
URI:	http://eprints.unm.ac.id/id/eprint/23860

Actions (login required)

View Item