Bayesian Spatial Survival Models for Hospitalisation of Dengue: A Case Study of Wahidin Hospital in Makassar, Indonesia

Aswi, Aswi and Cramb, Susanna and Duncan, Earl and Hu, Wenbiao and White, Gentry and Mengersen, Kerrie L. (2020) Bayesian Spatial Survival Models for Hospitalisation of Dengue: A Case Study of Wahidin Hospital in Makassar, Indonesia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17 (878). pp. 1-12.

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Abstract

Spatial models are becoming more popular in time-to-event data analysis. Commonly, the intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior is placed on an area level frailty term to allow for correlation between areas. We considered a range of Bayesian Weibull and Cox semiparametric spatial models to describe a dataset on hospitalisation of dengue. This paper aimed to extend these two models, to evaluate the suitability of these models for estimation and prediction of the length of stay, compare different spatial priors, and determine factors that significantly affect the duration of hospital stay for dengue fever patients in the case study location, namely Wahidin hospital in Makassar, Indonesia. We compared two different models with three different spatial priors with respect to goodness of fit and generalisability. For all models considered, the Leroux prior was preferred over the intrinsic conditional autoregressive and independent priors, but Cox and Weibull versions had similar predictive performance, model fit, and results. Age and platelet count were negatively associated with the length of stay, while red blood cell count was positively associated with the length of stay of dengue patients at this hospital. Using appropriate Bayesian spatial survival models enables identification of factors that substantively affect the length of stay.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: dengue fever; Bayesian spatial survival model; Weibull model; Cox model; Leroux model; conditional autoregressive prior
Subjects: FMIPA > STATISTIKA - (S1)
FMIPA
KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Universitas Negeri Makassar > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Divisions: KOLEKSI KARYA ILMIAH UPT PERPUSTAKAAN UNM MENURUT FAKULTAS > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Depositing User: Dr. Aswi Aswi
Date Deposited: 05 Oct 2021 06:44
Last Modified: 05 Oct 2021 06:44
URI: http://eprints.unm.ac.id/id/eprint/21176

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