Climate variability and dengue fever in Makassar, Indonesia: Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling

Aswi, Aswi and Cramb, Susanna and Duncan, Earl and Hu, Wenbiao and White, Gentry (2020) Climate variability and dengue fever in Makassar, Indonesia: Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 33. pp. 1-8.

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Abstract

A range of Bayesian models have been used to describe spatial and temporal patterns of disease in areal unit data. In this study, we applied two Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive (ST CAR) models, one of which allows discontinuities in risk between neighbouring areas (creating ‘groups’), to examine dengue fever patterns. Data on annual (2002–2017) and monthly (January 2013 - December 2017) dengue cases and climatic factors over 14 geographic areas were obtained for Makassar, Indonesia. Combinations of covariates and model formulations were compared considering credible intervals, overall goodness of fit, and the grouping structure. For annual data, an ST CAR localised model incorporating av�erage humidity provided the best fit, while for monthly data, a single-group ST CAR autoregressive model incorporating rainfall and average humidity was preferred. Using appropriate Bayesian spatio-temporal models enables identification of different groups of areas and the impact of climatic covariates which may help inform policy decisions.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian; Spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive; Climatic factors
Subjects: FMIPA > STATISTIKA - (S1)
FMIPA
KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Universitas Negeri Makassar > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Divisions: KOLEKSI KARYA ILMIAH UPT PERPUSTAKAAN UNM MENURUT FAKULTAS > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Depositing User: Dr. Aswi Aswi
Date Deposited: 01 Oct 2021 14:23
Last Modified: 01 Oct 2021 16:26
URI: http://eprints.unm.ac.id/id/eprint/21175

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