An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia

Abdy, Muhammad and Side, Syafruddin and Annas, Suwardi and Nur, Wahyudin and Sanusi, Wahidah (2021) An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia. Advances in Differences Equation, 105 (2021). pp. 1-17. ISSN 16871839, 16871847

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Official URL: https://advancesindifferenceequations.springeropen...

Abstract

The aim of this research is to construct an SIR model for COVID-19 with fuzzy parameters. The SIR model is constructed by considering the factors of vaccination, treatment, obedience in implementing health protocols, and the corona virus-load. Parameters of the infection rate, recovery rate, and death rate due to COVID-19 are constructed as a fuzzy number, and their membership functions are used in the model as fuzzy parameters. The model analysis uses the generation matrix method to obtain the basic reproduction number and the stability of the model’s equilibrium points. Simulation results show that differences in corona virus-loads will also cause differences in the transmission of COVID-19. Likewise, the factors of vaccination and obedience in implementing health protocols have the same effect in slowing or stopping the transmission of COVID-19 in Indonesia.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: FMIPA > Matematika
KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Universitas Negeri Makassar > KARYA ILMIAH DOSEN
Divisions: FAKULTAS MIPA
Depositing User: Dr. Muhammad Abdy
Date Deposited: 01 Jul 2021 11:00
Last Modified: 31 Aug 2021 14:53
URI: http://eprints.unm.ac.id/id/eprint/20632

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